(For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) google_ad_height = 600; The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 resulted in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . This level is actually .02 feet . Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. 159 0 obj <> endobj We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. google_ad_type = "text_image"; As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. google_color_link = "0000FF"; Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). Credit: Alex Hager. Lake Mead's water levels . Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. 15 Day Weather Forecast About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. (Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun), How Denver is spending the $41M from the Broncos sale, (720) 263-2338 Call, text, Signal or WhatsApp, Proudly powered by Newspack by Automattic. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? The lake is set to reach. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). Water managers, who . The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. google_color_url = "426C95"; If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) google_color_link = "0000FF"; inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. Flight Center. Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. hb```)," For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. 15 Day Weather Forecast Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. hbbd``b`$WX)! WEco is funded by multiple donors. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. //2006-10-04: news A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. Much of that water. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9 //-->, Printable Version U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. Detailed Map of Powell "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. It can store about five times the average annual flow. Fresh Water News is an independent, non-partisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. monthly forecasts become more accurate. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. 04:12 - Source: CNN 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. google_ad_type = "text_image"; Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). google_ad_width = 160; While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. //-->, Printable Version The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. We are 37% through the Water Year. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. Gas Prices on Lake google_color_text = "000000"; Lake Powell