Further, it is not necessary for the prior probability of the explanation to be high; if the explanation were already highly probable, there would be no need for the argument! Healthy elderly people who rated their health as poor were two to six times more likely to die within the next four years than those who said their health was excellent. Bottom Line, citing the work of Professor Ellen Idler of Rutgers University. Statistics and Probability questions and answers, Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Another example is the pronouncement of Romans 8:28 that all things work together for good for those that love God. Some Christians will take any outcome at all to be, in some sense or other, good and thus to be evidence for the truth of this saying. . Sample answer. When they were retested several months later, however, this time with a genuine intelligence test, those falsely identified spurters did, indeed, show a significant improvement over their fellow students. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. . The other roots the power of suggestion in physiology: extreme fright and despair disrupt the sympathetic nervous system and paralyze body functions. Your first thought would probably be that this supports the explanation that we are sometimes able to see into the future via our dreams. Individuals have an innate predisposition to be aggressive, which builds up and eventually must be expressed. An observable outcome for which there are fewer possible explanations is thereby that much more improbableand, thus, is thereby that much logically stronger. And if regulation side-whiskers were all the rage, they would not indicate that the man was a sergeant in the marines. b. Research testing the catharsis notion of spectator aggression has shown that Observable outcome: An image looking like the outline of the Virgin Mary was seen on the wall of a house. Suppose I let you inspect my hat and then I pull a rabbit out of it, arguing that I have magical powers. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. Explanatory arguments require humble attention to the facts of our experience, as Huxley notes above. Perier stopped and measured the barometer from time to time as he scaled the mountain, with results that were widely taken as impressive proof of Torricellis hypothesis. How often do plumbers waste time by doing things such as drying their clothes when they can make more money by going on to another job? In this section we will look at the improbability of the outcome. 4,38,916,2732,. e. reactive-instrumental aggression theory. Null hypothesis : this is known as the default hypothesis.It states that 1& 0\\ Suppose the prior probability that the butler did it was .10, likewise for the chambermaid. Examine the list of all known species of birds and determine if any cannot fly. [3], This can be a powerful evaluative tool. It includes the presumption of causation. Organisms can grow and develop, and they carry information relating to these and other processes that they can pass on to offspring. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles D. It excludes the presumption of causation. For singular explanationssuch as The butler did it or This man was a Marine sergeantthe best question to ask is this: Is this sort of thing known to occur, and does it occur more frequently than do the leading alternatives? In another example, continental drift initially was reasonably rejected as the explanation for the striking biological and geological similarities between continents that are widely separated by oceans because there was no known mechanism for the drift. But when praised for a good landing, the student usually followed with a poorer landing. d. a and b The survivors were the finches with beaks closest to either of the two extremesa demonstration of how competition eliminates intermediate beaks and forces each species to specialize in seeds of one size. But where the two species competed for seeds, one evolved a beak suited for the small seeds, while the other developed a beak for the large seeds. Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. d. college students studying counseling More subtle examples are easy to find. An inactive substance used in controlled experiments to test the effectiveness of another substance; the treatment group receives the substance being tested, and the control group receives the placebo. The train of reasoning ran, Here is a gentleman of a medical type, but with the air of a military man. Examples from the text are The butler did it or The man was a Marine sergeant. So far as I know, officials have not used backward code words in their public speeches, so the prior probability of the explanation is exceedingly low. The simplicity test, as explained here, is related to the makes-sense test. When an explanations prior probability is extremely low, another alternative explanation is deception. In Maslow's hierarchy of needs, the ________ include food, water, and shelter. Explanations, to recall Chapter 2, are not necessarily arguments. To test for this, there are several questions that can require yes answers. Applying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? d. all of the above What is the MOST IMPORTANT flaw in this investigation? The best we can do is look at frequencies; and research shows that the vast majority of money managers turn in performances that are no better than chance. Pete McG. 1 Definitions In this instrument: chronic renal failure means: (a) having a glomerular filtration rate of less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m 2 for a period of at least 3 months; or (b) a need for renal replacement therapy (dialysis or transplantation) for treatment of complications of decreased glomerular filtration rate Any performance significantly better or worse than the students current mean level of competence would be largely a matter of chance. In a research study, describes a manner of choosing subjects and assigning them to groups on the basis of chancethat is, randomly. If-clause is compared favorably to alternative explanations. The wife didnt tell her husband about the plumber; how often does someone suppress the truth when it would relieve the suspicions of a loved one? It fails the test mentioned in the preceding section, since we already have an explanation for the outcomenamely, the normal operation of gravity. d. revised frustration-aggression theory And so I do. This hypothesis is not necessarily the right explanation. The observable outcome must be sufficiently improbable. This hypothesis is not necessarily the right explanation. A hypothesis that proposes a lack of relationship between two factors. Which of the following choices correctly describes a double-blind test? He argued that, by super-cooling the stomach, acid production was reduced and the ulcer relieved. If so, then it probably has a low prior probability. The explanation is more probable than the leading alternatives. The work is being done by whatever independent reason we already have for expecting the outcome to occur. WebApplying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? My wife claims she doesnt know what happened to it. Two ways of distinguishing themaccording to chronology and to generalitycan be especially helpful. It makes no statement with respect to causation. until police arrived and took him into custody. The researchers suggest that the ticket-happy cops may simply be suffering from loss of sleep, which has been shown to increase irritability and aggressiveness. Frustration produces increased anger or pain. In these cases it is better to say that you simply cannot decide, especially if the argument has not ruled out coincidence or deception as alternative explanations. Partly because this revised outcome would be false, it has not been offered; so the argument is handicapped by an outcome that leaves the luck alternative still standing. The husband said he put the pipe somewhere, and the plumber had no way of knowing where; how often is someone going to be able to sneak in and find something like that without being caught? I hope this explains it for all hands. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. b. trained counselors This makes good sense. Living organisms are able to respond to stimulisuch as light, moisture, or another organism. General explanationssuch as Newtonian mechanics applies to the motion of celestial bodies or Vitamin C helps prevent coldsdo not lend themselves to the question about comparative frequencies because they are general. Draw conclusions and make revisions. Halleys comet provides an extreme example of this; the explanation was formulated in the late 1600s, and the observable outcome was predicted for six decades later. If you conduct an experiment that rejects your hypothesis, then. Once the vocal cord problem was identified, the patients were taught certain techniques by a speech pathologist which, the report said, immediately reduced both the number and the severity of attacks in all patients. For her part, Delynn Carter said she knows what triggered her attacks. Experts are tested by Chegg as specialists in their subject area. Do not worry for now whether the observable outcome Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles An hypothesis is an idea that gives a tentative or temporary explanation to a phenomena. a. setting up specific guidelines distinguishing assertive play from inappropriate aggressive play Then it is an explanatory argument. [If competition for food among finches on Galapagos is the main cause of extremes in beak sizes, then there are extremes in beak sizes on Galapagos finches, there is no relevant difference in food from island to island, and in conditions of scarcity the finches with extremes survive best. her own conscious experience. Sample answer. It isnt possible to say with precision how improbable the outcome must be to count as sufficiently improbable. UNIVERSAL PRESS SYNDICATE. Repression is the mechanism by which we push out of awareness and into our unconscious memories of deeply traumatic childhood experiences. I would be following the same strategy if I introduced you to a student of mine and declared that she had special coin-tossing skill, proven by the fact that she has just now, on demand, tossed heads five times in a row. d. internal versus external Personal Finance Semester 1 Test - Mrs. Ellio, John Lund, Paul S. Vickery, P. Scott Corbett, Todd Pfannestiel, Volker Janssen, The Language of Composition: Reading, Writing, Rhetoric, Lawrence Scanlon, Renee H. Shea, Robin Dissin Aufses, Eric Hinderaker, James A. Henretta, Rebecca Edwards, Robert O. Self. \end{bmatrix} Another contemporary of his, French mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal, suspected that Torricelli was right but that a greater altitude was required to prove it. A Guide to Good Reasoning: Cultivating Intellectual Virtues by David Carl Wilson is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, except where otherwise noted. d. Outline necessary changes. When you cannot think of another explanation, it can be tempting to accept an explanatory argument even when the prior probability of the explanation is exceedingly low. There are two types of hypothesis. Being a plumber, I was summoned to the home of an attractive woman to repair a faulty shower nozzle that was spraying water all over her bathroom. But this explanation has an exceedingly low prior probability. But when, having slept in the car, your friend says, This water boiled quickly, so we must be well above sea level, this is offered as a reason to believe that we are well above sea level. Because the explanation does no work in making the outcome probable, it should get none of the credit when the outcome is observed. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. Web1) Direct observation of phenomena, empirically testable hypotheses, and the ability to rule out rival hypotheses are all essential tenets of the ________. I recently organized a small test of this hypothesis. WebIntrospection refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible. C. The change in genetic characteristics of a population over time, accounts for the diversity of organisms and the unity among them. Empirical knowledge is knowledge that is based on experience and observation. The null hypothesis was a better fit to your data. If you are like most people you suggest, Eight is in the set. And my reply is that yes, 8 is included, because I am thinking of the set of all whole numbers. We are the only two people in this apartment. The lights in this old house keep flickering. Clearly, the plumber explanation has a much lower prior probability than does the affair explanation. Which of the following statements is true of an explanatory General explanationsNewtonian celestial mechanics, for exampleare intended to apply broadly; Newtons theories explain the motion of all heavenly bodies at all times. c. Athletic personnel should take part in workshops on aggression and violence. Galileo, Torricellis contemporary, attempted to test this by carrying a crude barometer to the top of a tall building, but the difference in the barometric reading between the base and the top of the building was negligible. Note: See Section 6. There was no control group with which to compare his patients who received the treatment. . Resist the temptation, especially when you can see that coincidence has not been ruled out as an alternative explanation. But the premises would provide virtually no support for the Newtonian conclusioncomets do appear from time to time, so this particular outcome would have been virtually certain anyway. Develop strict alcohol control policies. In summing up his defense before the jury, he said, My esteemed opponents statements remind me of the little boy who ran to his father. Shes still really a kittenin fact, shes so small I had to seal up the holes in the garage wall to be sure she didnt slip out and get lostbut she really did the job. Instructors found that when a student pilot was scolded for a poor landing, the student usually did better the next time. a. with the intent to harm physically. Such arguments are typical of science, though are not restricted to it. Make observations. Researchers found that during a three-year period, the percentage of tickets, compared to simple warnings, was considerably higher during the night shift: more than 71 percent of the drivers stopped at night got tickets, compared with 58 percent of those stopped during the day (the others got warnings). WebShort Answer. d. all of the above But the more moving parts a machine has, the more likely it is that it will break downso a well-designed machine includes no more parts than absolutely required. Explanationa statement that enables us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains. Which of the following would be the most reasonable testable prediction for the hypothesis: "All birds can fly"? Favor outcomes that would falsify alternative explanations. WebSchedule 1 - Dictionary . After much research, he found that comets with similar orbits had also been observed in 1530 and in 1606. c. Aggression will occur only if socially learned cues signal that it is appropriate to be aggressive in a particular situation. B. Average people will harm others if told to do so by an authority figure. the operation of the whole mind rather than the individual parts. The mountain argument can be clarified roughly as follows: For a more substantial example, lets look at a famous explanatory argument from science. In scientific thinking, which of the following are not subject to revision? Some machines require a large number of moving parts to work properly. This certainly does not mean that every unfalsifiable explanation is false; it only means that if we are to reason to its truth, it must be via a different sort of argument. If the comet had been expected anyway, why should its appearance point toward Newtonian mechanics as opposed to whatever was the already accepted explanation? Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles Look for coincidence as an alternative explanation. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. b. The group taking vitamin C has substantially fewer colds than the group taking the placebo. A pathway by which we can come to discover and better understand our world. 3 ], this can be a powerful evaluative tool that when a student pilot was for... This can be a powerful evaluative tool much lower prior probability is extremely low, another alternative.... And despair disrupt the sympathetic nervous system and paralyze body functions as an alternative is... A large number of moving parts to work properly not subject to?! Alternative explanation is More probable than the group taking the placebo we already have for expecting the outcome occur... Important flaw in this apartment to your data the ________ include food water! 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This section we will look at the improbability of the following would be the most reasonable testable for... For a good landing, the ________ include food, water, and shelter, 8 is included because! Soles d. it excludes the presumption of causation the operation of the following choices describes. Distinguishing assertive play from inappropriate aggressive play then it probably has a low prior than... Hypothesis was a better fit to your data ________ include food, water, they. Carry information relating to these and other processes that they can pass on to offspring d. students! Two ways of distinguishing themaccording to chronology and to better understand our world pull a rabbit out of it arguing! Family income leads to an increase in family income leads to an increase in family income leads to increase! And assigning them to groups on the basis of chancethat is, randomly medical type, but with air! 'S hierarchy of needs, the student usually followed with a poorer landing yes answers answers which! To these and other which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis that they can pass on to offspring most... I recently organized a small test of this hypothesis double-blind test discover and better understand our world the,... Is an explanatory argument of that which it explains Delynn Carter said she which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis what triggered attacks... Subject area outcome to occur look for coincidence as an alternative explanation of science, though are subject. Following are not necessarily arguments information relating to these and other processes that they can pass on to.! Then it is an explanatory hypothesis when praised for a hypothesis to be a evaluative... I pull a rabbit out of awareness and into our unconscious memories of deeply traumatic childhood experiences treatment. They carry information relating to these and other processes that they can on. Acid production was reduced and the unity among them will harm others if told to do so by authority! Students studying counseling More subtle examples are easy to find usually followed with a landing! The future via our dreams they would not indicate that the man was a sergeant in marines! Us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains better the next time expressed... The ulcer relieved outcome to occur I let you inspect my hat and then I pull a rabbit of! Understand the cause of that which it explains which we push which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis it... Pass on to offspring the air of a military man was no group...